Beyond the 3-point arc

By Leandro Collares

There has been a change in the field goal (FG) selection in the National Basketball Association (NBA). The shift towards 3-point field goals is gradual yet noticeable.

The interactive bar chart below displays the percentage of points scored via 3-point FGs between 1999-2000 and 2019-2020 regular seasons.

1999-20002000-20012001-20022002-20032003-20042004-20052005-20062006-20072007-20082008-20092009-20102010-20112011-20122012-20132013-20142014-20152015-20162016-20172017-20182018-20192019-2020seasonpoints scored via 3-point FGs (%)05101520253035

In the 1999-2000 regular season, no team scored more than 22% of its points via 3-point FGs. 21.4% of the Houston Rockets points resulted from 3-pointers, whereas only 8% of the Philadelphia 76ers points came from 3-point FGs. In the 2019-2020 regular season, all teams scored at least 27.1% of their points via 3-pointers. Furthermore, 14 teams scored more than one third of their points via 3-point FGs.

The interactive scatterplot shows the percentages of points scored by NBA teams via 3-point and mid-range FGs during regular seasons. Each circle represents a team.

points scored via 3-point FGs (%)51015202530354045points scored via mid-range FGs (%)010203040
2019 - 2020
1999 - 20002019 - 2020

The visualization shows a decline in the points scored by NBA teams via mid-range FGs. The percentage of points scored through mid-range FGs varied between 15.6 and 37.7% in the 1999-2000 regular season, and was 17% at the most in the 2019-2020 season.

The percentage of points scored via 3-pointers by the Houston Rockets was the highest in the NBA in seven of the last 21 regular seasons (1999-2000, 2006-07, 2014-15, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-20). 42.5% of the Houston Rockets points were scored via 3-point shots in the 2018-2019 regular season!

The 3-point revolution has taken over the NBA. When will it end? Will mid-range shots disappear?